Home Price Forecast 2023 Revised
During the fourth quarter of last year, some housing experts projected home prices were going to crash in 2023. The media ran with those forecasts and put out headlines calling for doom and gloom in the housing market. All of this negative news coverage made a lot of people have doubts about the strength of the residential real estate market. If it made you question if you should delay your own plans to move, here’s what you really need to know. Home Prices Never Crashed Disregard what you saw in the headlines. The actual data shows home prices were remarkably resilient and performed far better than the media would have you believe (see graph below): This graph uses reports from three trusted sources to clearly illustrate prices have already rebounded after experiencing only slight declines nationally. That’s a far cry from the crash so many articles called for. The declines that did happen (shown in red), weren’t drastic but were short-lived. As Nicole Friedman, a reporter at the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), says: “Home prices aren’t falling anymore. . . The surprisingly quick recovery suggests that the residential real-estate downturn is turning out to be shorter and shallower than many housing economists expected . . .” Even though some media coverage made a big deal about home prices pulling back, the slight correction that happened is already in the rearview mirror. Basically, this data shows you home prices aren’t falling anymore – they’re actually going back up. What’s Next for Home Prices? The consensus from experts is that home price growth will continue in the years ahead and is returning to normal levels for the market. That means we’ll still see home prices appreciating, just at a slower pace than the last few years – and that’s a good thing. Some news sources will see home price growth slowing and put out stories that make you think prices are falling again. The return of misleading headlines like those is already having an impact on how homebuyers are feeling again. You can see how this affects general opinion in the Consumer Confidence Survey from Fannie Mae (see graph below): While the percentage of Americans who think prices will fall has been slowly declining this year, the latest Consumer Confidence data indicates that’s ticked back up recently (shown in red). This change is surprising especially since the home price data shows prices are going up, not down. It tells you the impact the media still has on public opinion. Don’t fall for the negative headlines and become part of this statistic. Remember, data from a number of sources shows home prices aren’t falling anymore. Bottom Line Even though the media may make things sound doom and gloom, the data shows home prices aren’t falling anymore. So, don’t let the headlines scare you or delay your plans. Let's connect so you have a trusted resource to cut through the noise and tell you what’s really happening in our area.
September Market Update 2023
If you’ve been watching the housing market and want to follow along with what’s happening, here are the most up to date numbers that reflect up until the end of August 2023 for Des Moines. These numbers are directly from the DMAAR website where they upload the monthly stats. Active listings: 3,062 Days on market: 38 Median sales price: $285,655 Contract written: 1,162 Contract closed: 1,314 Of the 3,062 units that were listed for sale in August, 30.63% of the homes sold between 0-30 days. Out of the 1,314 units that closed, approximately 42% of them had 3 bedrooms. Overall in comparison to the previous years, there is much less inventory, however the market is still moving. In the month of August of this year, the median house that sold had 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with a median price of $285,655. If you are considering selling your home and fall under that criteria, you are likely to sell your home for a great price and may sell your home within 30 days or less. If you are a buyer, home prices are going up but the increase is decelerating. Instead of large price jumps that we’ve seen in recent previous months, the price increases are happening at a much slower rate. It is estimated that mortgage rates will slowly go down in 2024 so this will help balance out prices and interest rates and allow more buyers to enter the market. That’s all for our September housing market update and if you have any additional questions please call us at (515) 329-4667 or email us at zelda@zealtynow.com.
Buyers need houses!
Buyer Traffic Is Still Stronger than the Norm Are you putting off selling your house because you’re worried no one’s buying because of where mortgage rates are? If so, know this: the latest data shows plenty of buyers are still out there, and they’re purchasing homes today. Here’s the data to prove it. The ShowingTime Showing Index is a measure of buyers touring homes. The graph below uses the latest numbers available and compares them to the same month in the last normal years to show just how active today’s buyers still are: As you can see, when June 2023 numbers are stacked alongside what’s typical for the housing market at this time of year, it's clear buyers are still active. And, they’re actually a lot more active than the norm. If you’re wondering how this could possibly be true, it’s because buyers are getting used to higher mortgage rates and accepting them as the new reality. As Danielle Hale, Chief Economist, Realtor.com, explains: “Interest rate hikes continue to further cut into buyers' purchasing power, although they appear to have adapted to the higher mortgage rate environment . . .” It’s simple. Buyers will always need to buy, and those who can afford to move at today’s rates are going to do so. The Key Takeaway for You While it’s true things have slowed down from the frenzy of the last couple of years, it doesn’t mean today’s market is at a standstill. The reality is: buyer traffic is still strong today. Even with today’s mortgage rates, plenty of buyers are still making their moves. So why delay your own move when there’s clearly a market for your house? Bottom Line Don’t put off your plans because you’re worried no one will buy your home. The opposite is true, and more buyers are more active than the norm. Let’s connect to get your house ready to sell, so it makes the best first impression possible on those eager buyers.
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