How the Federal Reserve’s Next Move Could Impact the Housing Market
Now that it’s September, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve (the Fed). The overwhelming expectation is that they’ll cut the Federal Funds Rate at their upcoming meeting, driven primarily by recent signs that inflation is cooling, and the job market is slowing down. Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics, said: “They’re ready to cut, just as long as we don’t get an inflation surprise between now and September, which we won’t.” But what does this mean for the housing market, and more importantly, for you as a potential homebuyer or seller? Why a Federal Funds Rate Cut Matters The Federal Funds Rate is one of the key factors that influences mortgage rates – things like the economy, geopolitical uncertainty, and more also have an impact. When the Fed cuts the Federal Funds Rate, it signals what’s happening in the broader economy, and mortgage rates tend to respond. While a single rate cut might not lead to a dramatic drop in mortgage rates, it could contribute to the gradual decline that’s already happening. As Mike Fratantoni, Chief Economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), points out: “Once the Fed kicks off a rate-cutting cycle, we do expect that mortgage rates will move somewhat lower.” And any upcoming Federal Funds Rate cut likely won’t be a one-time event. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says: “Generally, the rate-cutting cycle is not one-and-done. Six to eight rounds of rate cuts all through 2025 look likely.” The Projected Impact on Mortgage Rates Here’s what experts in the industry project for mortgage rates through 2025. One contributing factor to this ongoing gradual decline is the anticipated cuts from the Fed. The graph below shows the latest forecasts from Fannie Mae, MBA, NAR, and Wells Fargo (see graph below): So, with recent improvements in inflation and signs of a cooling job market, a Federal Funds Rate cut is likely to lead to a moderate decline in mortgage rates (shown in the dotted lines). Here are two big reasons why that’s good news for both buyers and sellers: 1. It Helps Alleviate the Lock-In Effect For current homeowners, lower mortgage rates could help ease the lock-in effect. That’s where people feel stuck within their current home because today’s rates are higher than what they locked in when they bought their current house. If the fear of losing your low-rate mortgage and facing higher costs has kept you out of the market, a slight reduction in rates could make selling a bit more attractive again. However, this isn’t expected to bring a flood of sellers to the market, as many homeowners may still be cautious about giving up their existing mortgage rate. 2. It Should Boost Buyer Activity For potential homebuyers, any drop in mortgage rates will provide a more inviting housing market. Lower mortgage rates can reduce the overall cost of homeownership, making it more feasible for you if you’ve been waiting to make a move. What Should You Do? While a Federal Funds Rate cut is not expected to lead to drastically lower mortgage rates, it will likely contribute to the gradual decrease that’s already happening. And while the anticipated rate cut represents a positive shift for the future of the housing market, it’s important to consider your options right now. Jacob Channel, Senior Economist at LendingTree, sums it up well: “Timing the market is basically impossible. If you’re always waiting for perfect market conditions, you’re going to be waiting forever. Buy now only if it’s a good idea for you.” Bottom Line The expected Federal Funds Rate cut, driven by improving inflation and slower job growth, is likely to have a positive, though gradual, impact on mortgage rates. That could help unlock opportunities for you. When you’re ready, let’s connect. That way you’ll be prepared to take action when the time is right for you. Email us at zelda@zealtynow.com or give us a call at (515) 329-4667.
The Best Time To Buy a Home This Year
A shift is underway in the housing market this season. And if you’ve been sitting on the sidelines waiting for the right moment to jump back into your homebuying search, this is a great time to do it. That’s because the best week to buy a home this year is just around the corner. Your sweet spot is here. The experts at Realtor.com study seasonal trends to figure out the ideal week for homebuyers: “Nationally, the best time to buy in 2024 is the week of Sept. 29–Oct. 5. This week historically has shown the best balance of market conditions that favor buyers. Inventory tends to be high, prices are below peak levels, demand is waning, and the pace of the market slows to a more manageable speed.” In addition to the historical trends and typical seasonality that Realtor.com looks at, there are also clear indicators in today’s market data that you’ll see better conditions right now than you would have over the last few years. Mortgage rates just hit their lowest point in 19 months, and that goes a long way to help with your purchasing power and affordability. Andy Walden with Intercontinental Exchange Inc. (ICE) points out: “Recent easing in mortgage rates brought some much-sought relief to prospective homebuyers. Along with a general cooling in home price growth, rates falling below 6.5 percent made August the most affordable month for housing since February.” And Ralph McLaughlin, Senior Economist at Realtor.com, explains that it’s not just rates that have improved – inventory has too: “The number of homes actively for sale continues to be elevated compared with last year, growing by 35.8%, a 10th straight month of growth, and now sits at the highest since May 2020.” That should give you more options. At the same time, sellers now have to compete with each other for your attention. That means they’ll be more likely to negotiate because they know their house will sit on the market longer if they don’t. As Zillow says: “Buyers waiting on the sidelines could find that early fall presents a ‘sweet spot,’ where there’s less competition from other buyers, more motivated sellers and lower interest rates to finance their purchases.” Bottom Line If you want to make sure you’re ready to take advantage of this sweet spot, let’s connect and start the prep work now. Maybe it’s time to get off the sidelines and into the action. Give us a call at (515) 329-4667 or email us at zelda@zealtynow.com and our team of experts will work with you and help you with all of your real estate needs. We also have a recommended team of mortgage experts that can assist in the process to give you the best experience overall.
Are We Heading into a Balanced Market?
If you’ve been keeping an eye on the housing market over the past couple of years, you know sellers have had the upper hand. But is that going to shift now that inventory is growing? Here’s a breakdown of what you need to know. What Is a Balanced Market? A balanced market is generally defined as a market with about a five-to-seven-month supply of homes available for sale. In this type of market, neither buyers nor sellers have a clear advantage. Prices tend to stabilize, and there’s a healthier number of homes to choose from. And after many years when sellers had all the leverage, a more balanced market would be a welcome sight for people looking to move. The question is – is that really where the market is headed? After starting the year with a three-month supply of homes nationally, inventory has increased to four months. That may not sound like a lot, but it means the market is getting closer to balanced – even though it’s not quite there yet. It’s important to note this increase in inventory is not leading to an oversupply that would cause a crash. Even with the growth lately, there’s still nowhere near enough supply for that to happen. The graph below uses data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) to give you an idea of where inventory has been in the past, and where it’s at today: For now, this is still seller’s market territory – it’s just not as frenzied of a seller’s market as it’s been over the past few years. As Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, says: “The faster housing supply increases, the more affordability improves and the strength of a seller’s market wanes.” What This Means for You and Your Move Here's how this shift impacts you and the market conditions you'll face when you move. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR, explains: “Homes are sitting on the market a bit longer, and sellers are receiving fewer offers. More buyers are insisting on home inspections and appraisals, and inventory is definitively rising on a national basis.” The graphs below use the latest data from NAR and Realtor.com to help show examples of these changes: Homes Are Sitting on the Market Longer: Since more homes are on the market, they’re not selling quite as fast. For buyers, this means you may have more time to find the right home. For sellers, it’s important to price your house right if you want it to sell. If you don’t, buyers might choose better-priced options. Sellers Are Receiving Fewer Offers: As a seller, you might need to be more flexible and willing to compromise on price or terms to close the deal. For buyers, you could start to face less intense competition since you have more options to choose from. Fewer Buyers Are Waiving Inspections: As a buyer, you have more negotiation power now. And that’s why fewer buyers are waiving inspections. For sellers, this means you need to be ready to negotiate and address repair requests to keep the sale moving forward. How a Real Estate Agent Can Help But this is just the national picture. The type of market you’re in is going to vary a lot based on how much inventory is available. So, lean on a local real estate agent for insight into how your area stacks up. Whether you’re buying or selling, understanding how the market is changing gives you a big advantage. Your agent has the latest data and local insights, so you know exactly what’s happening and how to navigate it. Bottom Line The real estate market is always changing, and it’s important to stay informed. Whether you’re buying or selling, understanding this shift toward a balanced market can help. If you have any questions or need expert advice, don’t hesitate to reach out to us at Zealty Home Advisors zelda@zealtynow.com or call us at (515) 329-4667.
Categories
Recent Posts
